2015 UK Parliamentary Election LIVE Projection

Chris Hanretty, University of East Anglia
Benjamin Lauderdale, London School of Economics
Nick Vivyan, Durham University

This is a forecast of the result of the 2015 general election, updating live as the results come in. The most recent update was at 09 May 2015 at 13:01, using results reported by the UK Press Association for 632 of 632 GB constituencies.

These projections use our pre-election forecast as a starting point, and refine the projected seat totals as the results are returned. To see that pre-election forecast, using only data available before the election, see a sortable table of our vote share predictions and probabilities of victory for every seat, or our full pre-election forecast website.

TopRight

Majority or Largest Party?

  Majority (323+) Largest Party
Conservatives 100% 100%
Labour 0% 0%

BottomRight

Projected Seats for GB Parties:

  Lo Seats Hi
Conservatives 330 330 330
Labour 232 232 232
SNP 56 56 56
Liberal Democrats 8 8 8
Plaid Cymru 3 3 3
Greens 1 1 1
UKIP 1 1 1
Other 1 1 1

MainBody

Projected Seat Totals for Combinations of Parties

  Lo Seats Hi
Con + LD + DUP 346 346 346
Con + LD 338 338 338
Con + DUP 338 338 338
Con + UKIP 331 331 331
Lab + LD + SNP 296 296 296
Lab + SNP + PC + Grn 292 292 292
Lab + SNP 288 288 288
Lab + LD 240 240 240

Lo and Hi are the bounds of the central 90% prediction intervals. There is a 5% chance that the result will be below Lo and another 5% chance that the result will be greater than Hi.