2015 UK Parliamentary Election LIVE Projection

Chris Hanretty, University of East Anglia
Benjamin Lauderdale, London School of Economics
Nick Vivyan, Durham University

This is a forecast of the result of the 2015 general election, updating live as the results come in. The most recent update was at 08 May 2015 at 07:35, using results reported by the UK Press Association for 551 of 632 GB constituencies.

These projections use our pre-election forecast as a starting point, and refine the projected seat totals as the results are returned. To see that pre-election forecast, using only data available before the election, see a sortable table of our vote share predictions and probabilities of victory for every seat, or our full pre-election forecast website.

TopRight

Majority or Largest Party?

  Majority (324+) Largest Party
Conservatives above 95% above 95%
Labour below 5% below 5%

BottomRight

Projected Seats for GB Parties:

  Lo Seats Hi
Conservatives 324 326 329
Labour 233 236 238
SNP 56 56 56
Liberal Democrats 8 8 9
Plaid Cymru 3 3 3
Greens 0 1 1
UKIP 1 1 1
Other 1 1 1

MainBody

Projected Seat Totals for Combinations of Parties

  Lo Seats Hi
Con + LD + DUP 340 343 345
Con + LD 332 335 337
Con + DUP 332 334 337
Con + UKIP 325 327 330
Lab + LD + SNP 297 300 302
Lab + SNP + PC + Grn 293 295 298
Lab + SNP 289 292 294
Lab + LD 241 244 246

Lo and Hi are the bounds of the central 90% prediction intervals. There is a 5% chance that the result will be below Lo and another 5% chance that the result will be greater than Hi.