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Chris Hanretty, University of East Anglia
Benjamin Lauderdale, London School of Economics
Nick Vivyan, Durham University
This is a forecast of the result of the 2015 general election, updating live as the results come in. The most recent update was at 08 May 2015 at 07:35, using results reported by the UK Press Association for 551 of 632 GB constituencies.
These projections use our pre-election forecast as a starting point, and refine the projected seat totals as the results are returned. To see that pre-election forecast, using only data available before the election, see a sortable table of our vote share predictions and probabilities of victory for every seat, or our full pre-election forecast website.
Majority (324+) | Largest Party | |
---|---|---|
Conservatives | above 95% | above 95% |
Labour | below 5% | below 5% |
Lo | Seats | Hi | |
---|---|---|---|
Conservatives | 324 | 326 | 329 |
Labour | 233 | 236 | 238 |
SNP | 56 | 56 | 56 |
Liberal Democrats | 8 | 8 | 9 |
Plaid Cymru | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Greens | 0 | 1 | 1 |
UKIP | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Lo | Seats | Hi | |
---|---|---|---|
Con + LD + DUP | 340 | 343 | 345 |
Con + LD | 332 | 335 | 337 |
Con + DUP | 332 | 334 | 337 |
Con + UKIP | 325 | 327 | 330 |
Lab + LD + SNP | 297 | 300 | 302 |
Lab + SNP + PC + Grn | 293 | 295 | 298 |
Lab + SNP | 289 | 292 | 294 |
Lab + LD | 241 | 244 | 246 |
Lo and Hi are the bounds of the central 90% prediction intervals. There is a 5% chance that the result will be below Lo and another 5% chance that the result will be greater than Hi.