2015 UK Parliamentary Election LIVE Projection

Chris Hanretty, University of East Anglia
Benjamin Lauderdale, London School of Economics
Nick Vivyan, Durham University

This is a forecast of the result of the 2015 general election, updating live as the results come in. The most recent update was at 08 May 2015 at 06:50, using results reported by the UK Press Association for 503 of 632 GB constituencies.

These projections use our pre-election forecast as a starting point, and refine the projected seat totals as the results are returned. To see that pre-election forecast, using only data available before the election, see a sortable table of our vote share predictions and probabilities of victory for every seat, or our full pre-election forecast website.

TopRight

Majority or Largest Party?

  Majority (324+) Largest Party
Conservatives above 95% above 95%
Labour below 5% below 5%

BottomRight

Projected Seats for GB Parties:

  Lo Seats Hi
Conservatives 324 327 331
Labour 232 235 239
SNP 55 56 56
Liberal Democrats 7 8 9
Plaid Cymru 3 3 3
Greens 0 1 1
UKIP 1 1 1
Other 1 1 1

MainBody

Projected Seat Totals for Combinations of Parties

  Lo Seats Hi
Con + LD + DUP 340 343 347
Con + DUP 332 336 339
Con + LD 332 335 339
Con + UKIP 325 329 332
Lab + LD + SNP 295 299 302
Lab + SNP + PC + Grn 291 295 298
Lab + SNP 288 291 294
Lab + LD 240 243 246

Lo and Hi are the bounds of the central 90% prediction intervals. There is a 5% chance that the result will be below Lo and another 5% chance that the result will be greater than Hi.