2015 UK Parliamentary Election LIVE Projection

Chris Hanretty, University of East Anglia
Benjamin Lauderdale, London School of Economics
Nick Vivyan, Durham University

This is a forecast of the result of the 2015 general election, updating live as the results come in. The most recent update was at 08 May 2015 at 01:01, using results reported by the UK Press Association for 5 of 632 GB constituencies.

These projections use our pre-election forecast as a starting point, and refine the projected seat totals as the results are returned. To see that pre-election forecast, using only data available before the election, see a sortable table of our vote share predictions and probabilities of victory for every seat, or our full pre-election forecast website.

TopRight

Majority or Largest Party?

  Majority (323+) Largest Party
Conservatives below 5% 77%
Labour below 5% 22%

BottomRight

Projected Seats for GB Parties:

  Lo Seats Hi
Conservatives 260 282 303
Labour 243 263 284
SNP 47 53 57
Liberal Democrats 20 26 33
Plaid Cymru 2 4 6
UKIP 0 2 5
Greens 0 1 2
Other 0 1 2

MainBody

Projected Seat Totals for Combinations of Parties

  Lo Seats Hi
Lab + LD + SNP 322 342 364
Lab + SNP + PC + Grn 302 321 340
Con + LD + DUP 297 317 336
Lab + SNP 297 316 336
Con + LD 288 308 327
Con + DUP 269 291 312
Lab + LD 267 289 312
Con + UKIP 263 284 304

Lo and Hi are the bounds of the central 90% prediction intervals. There is a 5% chance that the result will be below Lo and another 5% chance that the result will be greater than Hi.