This is a forecast of the result of the 2015 general election, updating live as the results come in. The most recent update was at 08 May 2015 at 02:45, using results reported by the UK Press Association for 40 of 632 GB constituencies.
These projections use our pre-election forecast as a starting point, and refine the projected seat totals as the results are returned. To see that pre-election forecast, using only data available before the election, see a sortable table of our vote share predictions and probabilities of victory for every seat, or our full pre-election forecast website.
|Majority (323+)||Largest Party|
|Conservatives||below 5%||above 95%|
|Labour||below 5%||below 5%|
|Con + LD + DUP||317||329||340|
|Lab + LD + SNP||316||328||340|
|Con + LD||309||321||332|
|Lab + SNP + PC + Grn||297||309||320|
|Con + DUP||294||305||318|
|Lab + SNP||293||304||316|
|Con + UKIP||287||299||311|
|Lab + LD||260||272||284|
Lo and Hi are the bounds of the central 90% prediction intervals. There is a 5% chance that the result will be below Lo and another 5% chance that the result will be greater than Hi.