2015 UK Parliamentary Election LIVE Projection

Chris Hanretty, University of East Anglia
Benjamin Lauderdale, London School of Economics
Nick Vivyan, Durham University

This is a forecast of the result of the 2015 general election, updating live as the results come in. The most recent update was at 08 May 2015 at 02:45, using results reported by the UK Press Association for 40 of 632 GB constituencies.

These projections use our pre-election forecast as a starting point, and refine the projected seat totals as the results are returned. To see that pre-election forecast, using only data available before the election, see a sortable table of our vote share predictions and probabilities of victory for every seat, or our full pre-election forecast website.

TopRight

Majority or Largest Party?

  Majority (323+) Largest Party
Conservatives below 5% above 95%
Labour below 5% below 5%

BottomRight

Projected Seats for GB Parties:

  Lo Seats Hi
Conservatives 286 297 310
Labour 237 249 261
SNP 52 56 58
Liberal Democrats 19 23 28
Plaid Cymru 2 3 4
UKIP 0 2 4
Greens 0 1 2
Other 0 1 2

MainBody

Projected Seat Totals for Combinations of Parties

  Lo Seats Hi
Con + LD + DUP 317 329 340
Lab + LD + SNP 316 328 340
Con + LD 309 321 332
Lab + SNP + PC + Grn 297 309 320
Con + DUP 294 305 318
Lab + SNP 293 304 316
Con + UKIP 287 299 311
Lab + LD 260 272 284

Lo and Hi are the bounds of the central 90% prediction intervals. There is a 5% chance that the result will be below Lo and another 5% chance that the result will be greater than Hi.