2015 UK Parliamentary Election LIVE Projection

Chris Hanretty, University of East Anglia
Benjamin Lauderdale, London School of Economics
Nick Vivyan, Durham University

This is a forecast of the result of the 2015 general election, updating live as the results come in. The most recent update was at 08 May 2015 at 05:20, using results reported by the UK Press Association for 348 of 632 GB constituencies.

These projections use our pre-election forecast as a starting point, and refine the projected seat totals as the results are returned. To see that pre-election forecast, using only data available before the election, see a sortable table of our vote share predictions and probabilities of victory for every seat, or our full pre-election forecast website.

TopRight

Majority or Largest Party?

  Majority (323+) Largest Party
Conservatives 14% above 95%
Labour below 5% below 5%

BottomRight

Projected Seats for GB Parties:

  Lo Seats Hi
Conservatives 315 320 324
Labour 233 237 242
SNP 55 56 56
Liberal Democrats 11 13 16
Plaid Cymru 3 3 3
Greens 0 1 2
UKIP 1 1 2
Other 0 1 2

MainBody

Projected Seat Totals for Combinations of Parties

  Lo Seats Hi
Con + LD + DUP 336 341 345
Con + LD 328 333 337
Con + DUP 323 327 332
Con + UKIP 316 321 325
Lab + LD + SNP 302 306 311
Lab + SNP + PC + Grn 293 297 302
Lab + SNP 289 293 298
Lab + LD 246 250 255

Lo and Hi are the bounds of the central 90% prediction intervals. There is a 5% chance that the result will be below Lo and another 5% chance that the result will be greater than Hi.