This is a forecast of the result of the 2015 general election, updating live as the results come in. The most recent update was at 08 May 2015 at 02:31, using results reported by the UK Press Association for 25 of 632 GB constituencies.
These projections use our pre-election forecast as a starting point, and refine the projected seat totals as the results are returned. To see that pre-election forecast, using only data available before the election, see a sortable table of our vote share predictions and probabilities of victory for every seat, or our full pre-election forecast website.
|Majority (323+)||Largest Party|
|Conservatives||below 5%||above 95%|
|Labour||below 5%||below 5%|
|Lab + LD + SNP||316||329||344|
|Con + LD + DUP||313||327||340|
|Con + LD||305||319||332|
|Lab + SNP + PC + Grn||298||310||324|
|Lab + SNP||293||306||319.1|
|Con + DUP||289||303||317|
|Con + UKIP||283||297||311|
|Lab + LD||262||276||291|
Lo and Hi are the bounds of the central 90% prediction intervals. There is a 5% chance that the result will be below Lo and another 5% chance that the result will be greater than Hi.