2015 UK Parliamentary Election LIVE Projection

Chris Hanretty, University of East Anglia
Benjamin Lauderdale, London School of Economics
Nick Vivyan, Durham University

This is a forecast of the result of the 2015 general election, updating live as the results come in. The most recent update was at 08 May 2015 at 01:31, using results reported by the UK Press Association for 10 of 632 GB constituencies.

These projections use our pre-election forecast as a starting point, and refine the projected seat totals as the results are returned. To see that pre-election forecast, using only data available before the election, see a sortable table of our vote share predictions and probabilities of victory for every seat, or our full pre-election forecast website.

TopRight

Majority or Largest Party?

  Majority (323+) Largest Party
Conservatives below 5% above 95%
Labour below 5% below 5%

BottomRight

Projected Seats for GB Parties:

  Lo Seats Hi
Conservatives 275 292 309
Labour 237 255 272
SNP 48 53 57
Liberal Democrats 19 24 30
Plaid Cymru 2 4 6
UKIP 0 2 4
Greens 0 1 2
Other 0 1 2

MainBody

Projected Seat Totals for Combinations of Parties

  Lo Seats Hi
Lab + LD + SNP 315 332 350
Con + LD + DUP 309 325 341
Con + LD 300 316 332
Lab + SNP + PC + Grn 297 313 329
Lab + SNP 292 308 325
Con + DUP 284 301 318
Con + UKIP 277 294 311
Lab + LD 260 279 298

Lo and Hi are the bounds of the central 90% prediction intervals. There is a 5% chance that the result will be below Lo and another 5% chance that the result will be greater than Hi.