2015 UK Parliamentary Election LIVE Projection

Chris Hanretty, University of East Anglia
Benjamin Lauderdale, London School of Economics
Nick Vivyan, Durham University

This is a forecast of the result of the 2015 general election, updating live as the results come in. The most recent update was at 07 May 2015 at 17:18, using results reported by the UK Press Association for 0 of 632 GB constituencies.

These projections use our pre-election forecast as a starting point, and refine the projected seat totals as the results are returned. To see that pre-election forecast, using only data available before the election, see a sortable table of our vote share predictions and probabilities of victory for every seat, or our full pre-election forecast website.

TopRight

Majority or Largest Party?

  Majority (323+) Largest Party
Conservatives below 5% 62%
Labour below 5% 37%

BottomRight

Projected Seats for GB Parties:

  Lo Seats Hi
Conservatives 252 278 305
Labour 240 267 293
SNP 47 53 57
Liberal Democrats 21 27 33
Plaid Cymru 2 4 6
Greens 0 1 1
UKIP 0 1 2
Other 1 1 1

MainBody

Projected Seat Totals for Combinations of Parties

  Lo Seats Hi
Lab + LD + SNP 320 348 373
Lab + SNP + PC + Grn 299 325 349
Lab + SNP 294 320 344
Con + LD + DUP 290 314 340
Con + LD 281 305 331
Lab + LD 266 295 321
Con + DUP 261 287 314
Con + UKIP 254 279 306

Lo and Hi are the bounds of the central 90% prediction intervals. There is a 5% chance that the result will be below Lo and another 5% chance that the result will be greater than Hi.